Can the rapid development of the LED power industry continue?
In the short span of more than 10 years in the 21st century, China has won 200 championships in 500 industrial products. But behind these world firsts, most of them come from blind subsidies from the government, and they also planted overcapacity mines. The big factory closed the tide. This can not help but remind us: whether the rapid development of LED power industry can continue
Lessons from the past: blind subsidies, messing up solar energy
There have been several industries that have been “subsidized, and have lost money”, and blind expansion has led to financial crisis.
Since 1997, the policy of “grasping the big and letting small” (editing: supporting large-scale competitive enterprises in the world and letting small and medium-sized enterprises to make their own living) has started this special industry development relying on “support subsidies”. form.
Fifteen years ago, China had the world's largest population, but there was almost no industry in the world. China’s embarrassing road is a “necessary evil”: all industries must grow fast and have a large scale.
But now it seems that the industries that have been “named by” in China, including the early coal, iron, copper, aluminum, semiconductor fabs, and the LED power supplies in the seven emerging industries, are all overcapacity, turning back. The government seeks to care for the eyes.
58% of the world's solar polysilicon production in China; 46% of the world's solar cell capacity is also in China. GCL, Wuxi Suntech, Jiangxi Saiwei, Yingli, Tianhe... These Chinese companies, from the nameless to the global industry price, have not been more than 10 years before and after. However, in August 2012, Wuxi Suntech, the first brand of solar cells, was born under the huge losses. The founder Shi Zhengrong resigned from the post of CEO and was replaced by the chief financial officer Jin Wei, but he still has not escaped the shadow of bankruptcy. Italian courts also accused them of illegally setting up solar power plants to defraud government subsidies. Shande Power, the parent company listed in the US, was filed a class action lawsuit by US investors, and the old golden chicken (Wuxi Suntech) collapsed to solve the problem.
Overcapacity, profit from subsidies
In 2012, China's solar energy, which was blindly expanded, suffered two evil consequences: one was the stagnation of global market growth, dragging down 90% of China's solar energy production line, and the capacity utilization rate of the first-tier manufacturers was the lowest in the history of 50% to 70%. . The other is the combination of Europe and the United States, the United States on November 7 by the International Trade Commission (ITC) ruled that China's batteries and modules for "double anti-" (anti-dumping, anti-subsidy) classes with high tariffs. Then on November 10th, the world's largest solar energy market - the European Union also announced that it would restart the investigation of China's anti-dumping. "Once the EU determines the punishment, China's second- and third-tier solar plants will have a wave of bankruptcies," Jia Jiazheng expected. ‖
The LED power industry has also fallen into the same dilemma. Oversupply has continued from 2011 to 2012. However, when the global LED factory fell into a loss, the Chinese indicator industry Sanan Optoelectronics still had a profit of RMB 666 million in the first three quarters, the first 10 months. The amount of government subsidies reached RMB 300 million. On November 13, Sanan 挟 huge financial resources, privately acquired nearly 20% of Taiwan's equity, became the first share of the cross-strait LED.
This kind of industry miracle that relies on government subsidies and rewards has an amazingly high growth and easy ride in the early days.
The promotion policy is to encourage the LED
In fact, due to the continued downturn in the European and American economies, many LED lighting export companies have made the choice of the domestic LED lighting market. The country's series of favorable policies to promote LED is undoubtedly a stimulant for domestic LED companies.
At the end of last year, the National Development and Reform Commission announced the "China Roadmap for Eliminating Incandescent Lamps" and decided to ban the sale and import of incandescent lamps for general lighting of 100 watts and above from October 1, 2012; by October 1, 2016, sales and Import incandescent lamps for general lighting of 15 watts and above. The release of this road map means that incandescent lamps will gradually withdraw from the historical stage from this year, and the prelude of the domestic LED lighting market has been opened.
While eliminating incandescent lamps, the state has further increased its support for LEDs. On April 12, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that in 2012 the Chinese government will spend 40 billion yuan for the purchase of LED street lamps and provide 30% financial subsidies for LED streetlight users.
On May 16, the State Council also discussed the adoption of the National Twelfth Five-Year Plan for the Basic Public Service System, which will provide 2.2 billion yuan to support the promotion of energy-saving lamps and LED lights.
The introduction of a series of favorable policies is of great significance to the launch of the domestic LED power lighting market. Some industry experts predict that by 2020, LED's market share in China's lighting market will reach 80%, becoming the world's largest LED lighting market, the market size will exceed one trillion yuan.
Will the government’s strong subsidy promotion help open the civilian market?
“In the past two years, the LED lighting promotion process has played a major role in the government.” In Zhang Wei’s view, the high price of LED lighting products has a natural barrier to the market. In order to gradually cultivate this market, the government needs to be strong. The subsidy policy is stimulating. "At present, the penetration rate of LED lighting in China is only about 5%, and the potential is huge, but it also takes a while to show that the LED lighting market is fully open."
The development of technology needs to be gradual, and the LED power industry should also be like this. The government's strong subsidy and promotion policies have accelerated the development of the LED industry and helped to open the LED market quickly, but this has also brought concern to the industry.
An elderly person in the LED power lighting industry said that some of our policies should be re-examined. The government has stipulated that the transformation will be completed within a few years. This will allow the industry to make a large scale in a period of time, far exceeding the market. Real demand, and when the government achieves the goal, it will let the support policies fade out. At this time, the order will plummet. What should the company do?
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